The big news this week on CompleteCar.ie is the Irish government's unveiling of the 'ICE2EV' grant, otherwise known as the EV scrappage scheme.
On the face of it, this is a great new incentive to help the country achieve its emissions targets, as while the uptake of EVs is on the increase in Ireland, it's still not happening quickly enough. Such schemes have been moderately successful in the past, taking older cars off the road and encouraging motorists to buy a newer, cleaner model.
A big BUT
I don't want to be a party pooper, but I wonder how much the government liaised with the motor industry on this, as I'm not convinced that the numbers stack up for ICE2EV.
To avail of the scheme, buyers must submit a car of theirs that is at least 13 years old for scrapping, which they'll in return get €5,000 for, to put towards the purchase of a shiny new electric car. So far, so good, and that sounds generous. The problem is that it sits awkwardly between two very different groups of motorists.
Many 2012 and 2013 cars are still perfectly usable and worth real money, for instance. A good diesel Ford Focus, Volkswagen Golf, Toyota Auris or Skoda Octavia from that period may not be glamorous, but it is not necessarily a banger either. For many owners, scrapping such a car for €5,000 will make little financial sense.
At the other end of the market, there are plenty of older cars worth considerably less than €5,000. But are those owners really sitting there with the means to buy a brand-new EV, needing only one final nudge from the State? Even after the existing SEAI grant, VRT relief and this new scrappage payment, the very cheapest new electric cars would still require a five-figure outlay.
I find it very hard to believe that there are enough owners of cars worth less than €5,000 with the means to find at least another €12,000 to make such a scheme worthwhile or in any way useful.
How about this for an idea?
Ireland does not just need more new EVs. It needs a functioning second-hand EV market. Without that, the new-car market suffers too, because buyers and finance companies price in the risk of weak residual values.
Why were used EVs not considered to be part of the equation? That could have had a profound impact on the transition to electric power on several fronts.
First up, buyers on modest budgets in an ageing car could trade up to a used EV, taking an older, polluting vehicle off the road in the process. In return they get reduced running costs and a bargain EV.
Meanwhile, higher demand for used EVs bolsters their residual values, which has a major knock-on effect in terms of consumer confidence, leading to higher demand for new EVs of all prices as buyers trust there will be a used market for them. That in turn results in lower monthly payments when the cars are bought on finance.
The end result: the motor industry sells more new EVs, more of the populace moves to electric cars and Ireland takes a step closer to achieving its climate goals.
Minister O'Brien, you know where we are if anyone wants to design the second draft properly.