While many of us are still baulking at the thought of buying an electric car simply because we think that they're more expensive, that cost calculation could be about to change, and dramatically so.
Cheaper prices contingent on tighter CO2 rules
According to research carried out by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, by 2027, electric cars will actually be cheaper to build, and therefore sell, than their combustion-engined counterparts. Bloomberg's research went on to suggest that by 2035, Europe's car sales could be 100 per cent electric; "if lawmakers introduce measures like tighter vehicle CO2 targets and strong support for charging infrastructure."
However, there's a catch - according to environmental think-tank Transport & Environment (T&E), to do that, increasing taxes and extra costs will have to be heaped on to combustion-engined cars, which may well limit the amount of development cash that car makers can spend on new generations of EVs.
C and D-Segment cars benefit first
Bloomberg reckons that by 2026, at current rates of development, C-segment and D-segment cars (that's everything from a Golf to a Qashqai to a Passat to a Tucson) will be cheaper to build as EVs than they will be with combustion engines. Smaller B-segment models (Fiesta, Polo, Yaris etc) should follow suit by 2027. Bloomberg's research found that falling battery costs, new vehicle architectures, and dedicated production lines for electric vehicles will make them cheaper to buy, on average, even before subsidies.
Julia Poliscanova, senior director for vehicles and emobility at T&E, said: "EVs will be a reality for all new buyers within six years. They will be cheaper than combustion engines for everyone, from the man with a van in Berlin to the family living in the Romanian countryside. Electric vehicles are not only better for the climate and Europe's industrial leadership, but for the economy too."
T&E's figures show that all this will come to pass only if lawmakers increase vehicle CO2 targets and ramp up other policies to stimulate the market such as a faster roll-out of charging points. If left to the market without strong additional policies, battery-electric cars will reach only an 85 per cent market share, and e-vans just 83 per cent, in the EU by 2035 - missing Europe's goal to decarbonise by 2050.
Electric vans crucial too
Light electric vans will be cheaper than diesel vans from 2025, and heavy electric vans from 2026, BNEF also finds. But today, e-vans account for just two per cent of sales "because of weak emissions standards that fail to stimulate manufacturers to invest in their supply" T&E said. "EU lawmakers will need to set van-makers challenging CO2 targets, alongside dedicated e-van sales quotas, to increase investment and the number of electric models on the market.
Julia Poliscanova said: "With the right policies, battery-electric cars and vans can reach 100 per cent of sales by 2035 in western, southern and even eastern Europe. The EU can set an end date in 2035 in the certainty that the market is ready. New polluting vehicles shouldn't be sold for any longer than necessary."