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JATO Dynamics, the London-based vehicle industry analysis firm, has sounded a warning that CO2 emissions from European cars have spiked to their highest level since 2015.
According to JATO, the average emissions from a European car stood, in 2018, at 120.5g/km, a 2.4g/km rise over 2017 levels. Most of that rise has been attributed to buyers switching away from diesel back to petrol power. Sales of diesel-engined cars across Europe fell by 18 per cent in 2018.
Felipe Munoz, JATO's global analyst commented, "The introduction of WLTP in September 2018 has been a challenge for the market, as a large number of available vehicles had not been homologated yet. The increase in CO2 is certainly worrying and bad news for governments and most carmakers. Instead of moving forwards, the industry is regressing at a time when emissions targets are getting tougher."
Emissions of CO2 had been steadily declining from a 2007 peak of 159.1g/km to a low of 117.8g/km in 2016. 2017 then saw the trend reverse for the first time, with a rise of 0.3g/km coinciding with an eight per cent reduction in demand for diesel cars.
Munoz explains, "The positive effect of diesel cars on emissions has faded away as their demand has dropped dramatically during the last year. If this trend continues and the adoption of alternative fuelled vehicles doesn't accelerate, the industry will need to take more drastic measures in order to meet the short-term targets."
It's not just diesel, though., According to JATO, our insatiable appetite for SUVs and crossovers is contributing to the problem, as cars with those bodystyles are on average worse off by 1.4g/km than similar hatchbacks, saloons, or estates. Of the various market segments identified by JATO, only sport cars, luxury sedans and vans have average CO2 emissions that are worse than SUVs.
Only three countries saw improvements in CO2 emissions: Norway, Netherlands and Finland. In Norway, the growing popularity of electric and hybrid cars (57 per cent market share) was large enough to absorb the drop posted by diesel cars (-28 per cent). In the Netherlands, the improvement was due to an increase in demand for AFVs (alternative fuel vehicles - electric or hybrid cars, with a gain of +74 per cent) which counted for 11 per cent of the total market. However, this market is still strongly dependent on gasoline cars, which make up 76 per cent of the market. The worst performance was seen in the UK, which has carried out one of the most aggressive campaigns against diesel.
Of the manufacturers, Toyota is currently on top of the charts for low emissions and is the only company currently able to crack the 100g/km fleet average according to JATO's figures. In second place is Peugeot, with 107.7g/km, followed by Citroen (107.9g/km); Renault (109.1g/km); Nissan (110.6g/km); and Suzuki (114.2g/km).