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European CO2 emissions increase for first time in a decade

Data analysis suggests shift from diesel to petrol to blame for increase in CO2 levels.

What's the news?

Analysis of exhaust emissions carried out Europe-wide by JATO Dynamics has revealed a worrying increase in the average CO2 pumped out across the continent during 2017 - representing the first rise in European average CO2 emissions in ten years.

As news stories continue to scaremonger and force buyers away from diesel, petrol car sales are on the increase - but it would appear the price to pay for reducing NOx is increased CO2. JATO's figures suggested the CO2 emissions in our region went up 0.3g/km in 2017, to an overall average figure of 118.1g/km.

Drilling down further into the data, diesel cars registered in Europe had a CO2 emissions average of 117.9g/km, compared to petrol's 123.4g/km - a gap of 5.5g/km. For those outputs, the average power of a diesel registered in Europe in 2017 was 142hp, with petrol's equivalent number 123hp.

Despite this, pan-European governmental crackdowns on diesel and increased media scrutiny of the fuel type saw the volume of diesel cars fall 7.9 per cent, to 6.77 million units in total - just 43.8 per cent of total registrations in 2017 and diesel's lowest market share since 2003, when cars of this type accounted for 43.4 per cent of registrations. Indeed, 2017's 43.8 per cent figure is an 11.1 percentage-point drop from diesel's market share peak in 2011.

Conversely, registrations of petrols grew 10.9 per cent in 2017, the fuel type reaching its highest market share since, yes, 2003. Petrol vehicles grew in volume by three percentage points in 2017 compared to 2016, when they accounted for just 47 per cent of the market.

And don't think everyone is rushing to alternative fuel sources. JATO says that alternative fuelled vehicles (AFVs) grew from a 3 per cent market share in 2016 to 5 per cent in 2017, while battery-electric vehicles experienced 'meagre growth' too. Hybrid vehicles grew by a solitary percentage point in 2017.

Our preferred buying trends don't help, either. Demand for SUVs continued to rise in 2017 but, despite strong moves by the manufacturers to release smaller, more fuel-efficient crossovers and the adoption of hybrid solutions, the average CO2 output of these machines registered last year was 133g/km - way higher than the new car average of 118.1g/km. This is in spite of the fact that SUVs' average CO2 emissions actually fell year-on-year, from 134.9g/km CO2 in 2016.

The cleanest brand for 2017 Toyota. It took top spot from 2016's champion marque, Peugeot (which slipped to second as a result), thanks to its insistence on hybrids being the future of motoring. Average CO2 emissions for Toyotas registered in Europe last year decreased 2.7g/km from 2016 to an overall figure of 101.2g/km. Peugeot's sales, in contrast, rose 2.7g/km to 104.5g/km in 2017.

Anything else?

As should be obvious from these figures, JATO has extrapolated the following findings from the data: as demand for diesel cars continues to decline, consumers will increasingly turn to petrol vehicles, and those seeking higher power and torque will emit higher average CO2 emissions than if they used diesel; this, in turn, will lead to average CO2 emissions across Europe increasing further in the future; the shift in fuel from diesel to petrol needs to be addressed; registrations of hybrids, BEVs and AFVs are not increasing fast enough to counter the CO2 rises; and the increase in registrations of SUVs is playing a critical part in the emissions crisis. Sobering stuff to read, we're sure you'll agree.

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Published on March 6, 2018