Electric cars, which covers both battery-powered cars and plug-in hybrids, are set to treble their European market share next year, according to research from influential eco-think tank Transport & Environment (T&E).
Most car makers close to target
The drive in EV and PHEV sales comes as Europe's carmakers rush to meet the EU's 95g/km average fleet CO2 emissions limit for 2021. According to T&E, three carmakers already meet that limit - PSA Peugeot Citroen Opel, BMW, and Fiat-Chrysler, but that last one only manages the job thanks to an alliance with Tesla. The Renault-Nissan Alliance, Ford, and Mazda and Toyota (which are pooling their EU emissions) are all only around 2g/km away from the target. Indeed, the sheer weight of EV sales in a maker's mix can be easily seen in Renault's figures. Burgeoning sales of the Zoe have knocked a full 15g/km off of Renault's CO2 average.
Others that are close include Volkswagen Group (5g/km away from the target, but with a bevvy of EV and PHEV models arriving), Hyundai-Kia (between 3-to-7g/km away), Daimler-Benz (9g/km) and Jaguar Land Rover (13g/km).
EV share to treble this year
The share of electric car sales in the European market, according to T&E, looks set to swell from around three per cent to as much as ten per cent by year's end. In 2021, that figure could easily hit 15 per cent, not least because potentially hugely popular models such as the Tesla Model Y, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Volkswagen ID.4, Opel Mokka-e, and Skoda Enyaq will all be hitting showrooms.
However, T&E is sounding a warning bell that if the EU's CO2 regulations are not tightened up for 2025 (the next date at which they will be changed) then the current rush of EV and PHEV sales could stall, as carmakers won't need to make and sell more of them to meet the fleet averages.
Tighter CO2 regs needed
Julia Poliscanova, senior director for clean vehicles at T&E, said: "Electric car sales are booming thanks to EU emissions standards. Next year, one in every seven cars sold in Europe will be a plug-in. EU manufacturers are back in the EV race, but without more ambitious CO2 targets in 2025 and 2030 to spur them on, they'll run out of steam as soon as 2022. The electric car is finally entering the mainstream in Europe but SUV sales are still growing like weeds. The only way to kill off highly-polluting vehicles is to give carmakers a clear end date now. Cars that... emit CO2 shouldn't be allowed on the market after 2035."
T&E claims that badly-worded regulations are letting car makers off the hook when it comes to selling large, heavy SUVs (sales of which rose by 39 per cent in the first six months of 2020, although it's worth pointing out that the majority of SUV-category sales are actually of relatively light and efficient models such as the Renault Captur and Peugeot 2008). T&E also accuses car makers of selling what it calls 'fake electric models' - PHEV cars that owners never actually plug in, and which end up being thirstier and less efficient in use than a conventional petrol or diesel car. It's an accusation that has some basis - figures from UK company car operators seem to anecdotally confirm it - but accurate figures for such cars bought by private customers are not yet available, so it's not necessarily a given.