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The average fuel efficiency for all new vehicles in Ireland has significantly improved during the past 20 years - and yet the country still faces stiff EU penalties in 2020 for increased carbon dioxide emissions, says vehicle history and data expert Cartell.ie.
Examining all fuel efficiency figures for all new vehicles sold in Ireland between 1998 and 2017, Cartell.ie has found that efficiency has improved 35 per cent in that time - from 6.98 litres/100km (40.5mpg) in 1998 to just 4.53 litres/100km (62.4mpg) in 2017. The biggest change in that time has come since 2007, when the average fuel consumption of new cars registered in Ireland was 6.56 litres/100km (43.1mpg); the 4.53 litres/100km number today represents a 31 per cent increase in efficiency in just ten years.
This carbon shift post-2007 highlights some interesting changes demographically, too, as the impact of the 2008 recession had a massive toll on the numbers of new cars registered in Ireland. The year 2007 was actually the peak, with 201,982 vehicles sold, with 2008 still seeing 200,795 new cars registered. However, that number collapsed to 99,060 in 2009 and the total registrations in any one calendar year has only risen to a post-recession peak of 145,929 in 2016.
Nevertheless, no matter how many vehicles have been sold annually in Ireland since 2007, diesel has been king when it comes to fuel choice. In 2008, it was the first time diesel outsold petrol here, accounting for 51.7 per cent of the market, and that share increased to a peak of 81.5 per cent (99,266 diesels sold) of the total of 118,116 new cars registered in 2012 - it's this move to diesel in Ireland that saw the big reduction in CO2 emissions post-2007.
However, diesel's share is slowly diminishing, as improvements in market-wide petrol-engine technology, the quality of small, petrol and turbocharged cars and fears of a diesel-related NOx legislative backlash have all seen petrol's market share increasing steadily since 2012. In 2016, the year of the lowest average fuel consumption numbers yet recorded (4.49 litres/100km, or 62.9mpg), petrol accounted for 27.5 per cent of new car registrations and that increased to 32.4 per cent last year, which saw the slight rise in the average fuel consumption data to 4.53 litres/100km, or 62.4mpg. That's the only increase in average fuel economy as part of Cartell's survey period, since 2001's marginal hike on 2000's data.
Indeed, partial sales figures for 2018 show this reversion to petrol in Ireland increasing dramatically - so far, out of 42,123 cars registered according to Cartell's data, 16,546 have been petrol-powered. That equates to 39.3 per cent market share, meaning that diesel is only outselling petrol by 3:2 (1.5:1) now, compared to a peak of 22:5 (4.4:1) in 2012, and the average fuel consumption so far in 2018 has increased again, to 4.64 litres/100km, or 60.9mpg. This ties in to the recent Europe-wide report, which showed that average CO2 emissions from cars across the continent rose for the first time in a decade in 2017.
Cartell.ie says that the Government's Carbon Budget in 2007 and the change in the motor taxation regime for 2008 drove the public shift to diesel vehicles, which produce less CO2. However, reports recently suggested Ireland faces significant fines for a 'serious rise in Irish greenhouse gas emissions', partly attributed to the transport sector where emissions increased by 3.7 per cent in 2016; this despite fuel efficiency figures for cars improving by 2.2 per cent year-on-year when comparing 2016's data to 2015's figures.
Part of the problem, though, is that we're simply using our cars more today than ever before. Cartell.ie has already reported that the average annualised mileage travelled by a car that is five years of age or less in 2016 was 21,028km, an increase of 7.1 per cent on the same figure for 2008 (19,635km). So while the vehicles we're using are cleaner and more fuel-efficient, we're driving them further, increasing the levels of the greenhouse gas pumped into the atmosphere.
Furthermore, imports are having a negative effect on our CO2 emissions, this issue being driven by economic growth and the weakening of the UK pound as a result of the Brexit debacle. The average emissions level of a new car sold in Europe in 2016 was 118.1g/km, significantly below the EU target of 130g/km - and Ireland's new car registrations were even further ahead of this figure, with just 113g/km CO2. However, cars imported into Ireland accounted for an average 118g/km of CO2 in 2016 and that number rose to 120g/km CO2 in 2017. That, along with all of the data outlined above, is why Ireland looks like it is heading for significant financial penalties linked to emissions in 2020.
Anything else?
John Byrne, legal and public relations manager at Cartell.ie, said: "While our vehicles are 31 per cent more fuel efficient than they were in January 2008, we are using them more. This has obviously led to an increase in our carbon footprint and Ireland is facing heavy fines - partly due to the transport sector. Vehicles imported into Ireland are also producing more CO2 than vehicles purchased new in Ireland. Overall, the Government will be disappointed: we easily surpassed the EU emissions target in 2016 but still face heavy penalties."